Evaluación integradora de políticas de aguamodelado y simulación con sociedades artificiales de agentes

  1. José Manuel Galán Ordax
Supervised by:
  1. Ricardo del Olmo Martínez Director
  2. Adolfo López Paredes Director

Defence university: Universidad de Burgos

Year of defence: 2007

Committee:
  1. Cesáreo Hernández Iglesias Chair
  2. Javier Pajares Gutiérrez Secretary
  3. Alberto Garrido Colmenero Committee member
  4. Miguel Ángel Manzanedo del Campo Committee member
  5. Juan Luis Pavón Mestras Committee member
Department:
  1. Ingeniería de Organización

Type: Thesis

Abstract

In this doctoral thesis we demonstrate that the combination of agent based modelling and simulation is a robust and rigorous methodological approach for dealing with the multidimensional complexity of freshwater management in emergent metropolitan areas. In particular, we integrate and adapt different social submodels ?models of urban dynamics, water consumption, and technological and opinion diffusion? in an agent based model that is, in turn, linked with a geographic information system (GIS). The result is a computational environment that enables the simulation and comparison of various water demand policies under different scenarios. We have successfully parameterized the general model for the Metropolitan Area of Valladolid, obtaining interesting results. The conclusions drawn in this way would have been difficult to obtain using other approaches, such as conventional forecasting methods. We prove that the described methodology can complement conventional approaches, offering realistic and rigorous alternative insights to the problem