Evaluación integradora de políticas de aguamodelado y simulación con sociedades artificiales de agentes

Abstract

In this doctoral thesis we demonstrate that the combination of agent based modelling and simulation is a robust and rigorous methodological approach for dealing with the multidimensional complexity of freshwater management in emergent metropolitan areas. In particular, we integrate and adapt different social submodels ?models of urban dynamics, water consumption, and technological and opinion diffusion? in an agent based model that is, in turn, linked with a geographic information system (GIS). The result is a computational environment that enables the simulation and comparison of various water demand policies under different scenarios. We have successfully parameterized the general model for the Metropolitan Area of Valladolid, obtaining interesting results. The conclusions drawn in this way would have been difficult to obtain using other approaches, such as conventional forecasting methods. We prove that the described methodology can complement conventional approaches, offering realistic and rigorous alternative insights to the problem