La economía y el apoyo a la gestión gubernamentalun análisis explicativo del efecto condicionado de la situación económica en Colombia y Perú (1985-2012)

Abstract

The thesis analyzes the effect of the economy in approval government along the time. The main aim is to identify magnitude an how this effect is influenced by other contextual and individual factors. The cases are Colombia and Peru which have relevant similarities for comparison as the presence of the problem of political violence and the blurring of the party system during 1985-2012. It use linear regression for time series in analysis of macro level and micro level estimates models with logit regression to investigate the conditional effect. The main findings of the comparative study indicate that the events of political violence affect differently the effects of economic conditions on support for the government in Colombia atenuates the positive impact of economic growth and in Peru reforce the effect of inflation. Futhermore educational level makes more inclined to support the government from sociotropic judgments similarly.