Entre dos Unionesel camino de Escocia hacia el "IndyRef2"

  1. Javier Antón Merino
Revista d'estudis autonòmics i federals

ISSN: 1886-2632

Year of publication: 2022

Issue: 36

Pages: 395-424

Type: Article

More publications in: Revista d'estudis autonòmics i federals


Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, has announced a second independence referendum will be held on 19 October 2023. Given the UK government’s refusal to negotiate a new independence referendum, the call for this referendum, popularly known as IndyRef2, is shrouded in great uncertainty. The aim of this article is to assess the chances of this second Scottish independence referendum finally taking place. To do so, it will begin by taking a historical overview of the different referendums that have been held in this territory, analysing their consequences and how their given results have influenced the strategies of certain political parties (specifically, the Scottish National Party). Subsequently, the arguments for and against holding a second independence referendum for Scotland will be presented, and the article will finish by assessing the real possibilities of IndyRef2 being held on the date planned by the Scottish authorities. This investigation concludes by anticipating that, over the next few years, the Scottish territorial question will continue to be a key element in the internal politics of the United Kingdom.

Bibliographic References

  • Aguilera de Prat, C. R. Partidos y estrategias nacionalistas en Cataluña, Escocia y Flandes. Valencia: Tirant lo Blanch, 2002.
  • Amat, Francesc. “Party Competition and Preferences for Inter-regional Redistribution in Spain”. South European Society and Politics 17, n.o 3 (septiembre de 2012): 449-65. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2012.701897.
  • Anderson, Lawrence. “Federalism and Secessionism: Institutional Influences on Nationalist Politics in Québec”. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 13, n.o 2 (17 de mayo de 2007): 187-211. https://doi.org/10.1080/13537110701293070.
  • Antón Merino, Javier. “Escocia, ¿secesionismo o europeísmo?”. Revista Más Poder Local 47 (2022): 118-35.
  • Bourne, Angela K. “Europeanization and Secession: The Cases of Catalonia and Scotland”. Journal on Ethnopolitics and Minority Issues in Europe 13, n.o 3 (2014): 94-120.
  • Brancati, Dawn. “Decentralization: Fueling the Fire or Dampening the Flames of Ethnic Conflict and Secessionism?”. International Organization 60, n.o 03 (9 de julio de 2006): 651-85. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081830606019X.
  • Brancati, Dawn. “The Origins and Strengths of Regional Parties”. British Journal of Political Science 38, n.o 1 (7 de enero de 2008): 135-59. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123408000070.
  • Bremberg, Niklas, y Richard Gillespie. Catalonia, Scotland and the EU. London: Routledge, 2022. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003129028.
  • British Broadcasting Corporation. “Scotland Decides - Scotland votes No”. British Broadcasting Corporation, 2014. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results.
  • Butler, David, y Uwe Kitzinger. The 1975 Referendum. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24652-6.
  • Carman, Christopher, Robert Johns, y James Mitchell. More Scottish than British. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137023704.
  • Carrell, Severin. “Nicola Sturgeon seeks supreme court ruling on Scottish independence vote”. The Guardian. 28 de junio de 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/28/nicola-sturgeon-seeks-supreme-court-ruling-on-scottish-independence-referendum-vote.
  • Carrell, Severin, Patrick Wintour, y Rowena Mason. “Alex Salmond resigns as first minister after Scotland rejects independence”. The Guardian, 19 de septiembre de 2014. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/19/alex-salmond-resigns-first-minister-for-scotland.
  • Cetrà, Daniel, y Malcolm Harvey. “Explaining accommodation and resistance to demands for independence referendums in the UK and Spain”. Nations and Nationalism 25, n.o 2 (3 de abril de 2019): 607-29. https://doi.org/10.1111/nana.12417.
  • Comité de las Regiones. “Los movimientos regionales de independencia han de ser considerados asuntos internos de los Estados”. Comunicado de prensa. 15 de abril de 2013. http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_COR-13-31_es.htm.
  • Cortizas, Carlos Neira, y Sandrina Ferreira Antunes. “Yes Scotland” versus “Better Together” How did it all Happen? Bruselas: Centre Maurits Coppieters, 2016.
  • Curtice, John. “The 2011 Scottish Election: Records Tumble, Barriers Breached”. Scottish Affairs 76, n.o 1 (agosto de 2011): 51-73. https://doi.org/10.3366/scot.2011.0036.
  • Dardanelli, Paolo, y James Mitchell. “An Independent Scotland? The Scottish National Party’s Bid for Independence and its Prospects”. The International Spectator 49, n.o 3 (3 de julio de 2014): 88-105. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2014 .935996.
  • Dausà, Mariona Illamola. “Nacionalitat catalana I/O nacionalitat espanyola. I l’europea?” Revista d’Estudis Autonòmics i Federals 25 (2017): 93-128. https://doi.org/10.2436/20.8080.01.16.
  • Dow, Sheila, Robert McMaster, y Andrew Cumbers. “Sine praejudicio? Economics and the 2014 Scottish independence referendum”. Cambridge Journal of Economics 42, n.o 3 (2018): 597-615. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bex091.
  • Erk, Jan, y Lawrence Anderson. The Paradox of Federalism: Does Self-Rule Accommodate or Exacerbate Ethnic Divisions? Abingdon: Routledge, 2010.
  • Fondevila Marón, Manuel. “Secession referendums in the European Union and their consequences for decentralized entities of the member states”. Revista d’Estudis Autonòmics i Federals 30 (2019): 231-69. https://doi.org/10.2436/20.8080.01.43.
  • Henderson, Ailsa, Charlie Jeffery, y Robert Liñeira. “National Identity or National Interest? Scottish, English and Welsh Attitudes to the Constitutional Debate”. The Political Quarterly 86, n.o 2 (abril de 2015): 265-74. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12163.
  • Hepburn, Eve, Michael Keating, y Nicola McEwen. Scotland’s new choice. Independence after Brexit. Edimburgo: Centre on Constitutional Change, 2021.
  • Hughes, Kirsty. “Scotland and Europe”. En Michael Keating, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Scottish Politics, 618-32. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198825098.013.32.
  • Inglehart, Ronald F., y Pippa Norris. “Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash”. HKS Working Paper RWP16-026 (2016): 1-52.
  • Keating, Michael. “The European Question”. En Michael Keating, ed., Debating Scotland, 102-18. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198789819.001.0001.
  • Keating, Michael. La independencia de Escocia. Valencia: Universidad de Valencia, 2012.
  • Keating, Michael. “The Scottish independence referendum and after”. Revista d’Estudis Autonòmics i Federals 21 (2015): 73-98.
  • Keating, Michael, y Nicola McEwen. “The Independence Referendum of 2014: Issues and Outcome”. En Michael Keating, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Scottish Politics, 650-74. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1093/ oxfordhb/9780198825098.013.34.
  • Liñeira, Robert, Ailsa Henderson, y Liam Delaney. “Voters’ Response to the Campaign: evidence from survey”. En Michael Keating, ed., Debating Scotland, 165-90. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198789819.001.0001.
  • Lynch, Peter. “Bottom-up versus Top-down Campaigning at the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014”. Revue française de civilisation britannique 20, n.o 2 (10 de julio de 2015): 0-12. https://doi.org/10.4000/rfcb.405.
  • Massetti, Emanuele, y Arjan H Schakel. “Ideology matters: Why decentralisation has a differentiated effect on regionalist parties’ fortunes in Western democra-cies”. European Journal of Political Research 52, n.O 6 (octubre de 2013): 797-821. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12015.
  • McHarg, Aileen, Tom Mullen, Alan Page, y Neil Walker. The Scottish Independence Referendum. Croydon: Oxford University Press, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198755517.001.0001.
  • Mitchell, James, y Ailsa Henderson. “Elections and Electoral Systems”. En Michael Keating, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Scottish Politics, 202-19. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198825098.013.10.
  • Moreno, Luis. Escocia, nación y razón: dos milenios de política y sociedad. Madrid: Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Instituto de Estudios Sociales Avanzados, 1995.
  • Muro, Diego, y Martijn C. Vlaskamp. “How do prospects of EU membership influence support for secession? A survey experiment in Catalonia and Scotland”. West European Politics 39, n.o 6 (7 de noviembre de 2016): 1115-38. https://doi. org/10.1080/01402382.2016.1149993.
  • O’Connell, Hugh. “Mary Lou McDonald tells Australian audience Irish unity referendum will take place ‘in this decade’”. Independent.ie, 18 de julio de 2022. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/mary-lou-mcdonald-tells-australian-audience-irish-unity-referendum-will-take-place-in-this-decade-41854514.html.
  • Parliament Home Page. “Election Results”, 2017. https://commonslibrary.parliament. uk/research-briefings/cbp-7979.
  • Pattie, Charles, y Ron Johnston. “Sticking to the Union? Nationalism, inequality and political disaffection and the geography of Scotland’s 2014 independence referendum”. Regional and Federal Studies 27, n.o 1 (3 de enero de 2017): 83-96. https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2016.1251907.
  • Perman, Ray. “The Devolution Referendum Campaign of 1979”. En H. M. Drucker y N. L Drucker, ed., The Scottish Government Yearbook 1980, 54-63. Edimburgo: Paul Harris Publishing, 1979.
  • Qvortrup, Matt. A Tale of Two Referendums - Elite manipulation or civic engagement? Londres: The Constitution Society, 2015.
  • Scottish Government. “Agreement between the Scottish Government and the United Kingdom Government on the referendum on independence for Scotland”, n.o October (2012): 1.
  • Scottish Government. Scotland’s Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland. Edimburgo: Scottish Government, 2013.
  • Scottish Government. Scotland’s Right to Choose: Putting Scotland’s Future in Scotland’s Hands. Edimburgo: Scottish Government, 2019.
  • Scottish Government. Scottish Independence Referendum Bill (2022).
  • Stewart Leith, Murray, y Daniel P. J. Soule. Political Discourse and National Identity in Scotland. Edimburgo: Edinburgh University Press, 2011. https://doi.org/10.3366/edinburgh/9780748637362.001.0001.
  • Thiec, Annie. “‘Yes Scotland’: More than a Party Political Campaign, a National Movement Fostering a New Active Citizenship”. Revue française de civilisation britannique 20, n.o 2 (2015): 0-14. https://doi.org/10.4000/rfcb.401.
  • Tierney, Stephen. “The Scottish Independence Referendum”. En The Scottish Independence Referendum, 53-74. Croydon: Oxford University Press, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198755517.003.0003.
  • Torcal, Mariano, y Fabiola Mota. “The role of political parties in shaping citizens’ political preferences for the territorial organization of the state: the Spanish case”. European Political Science Review 6, n.o 3 (12 de agosto de 2014): 477-502. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773913000210.